When a government stays in power for too long, one characteristic becomes very prominent and it is consistency in vision. For this government, that common vision seems to be Viksit Bharat, which simply translates to Developed India.
You can’t just keep building new highways while the current
roads are full of potholes. Real progress means fixing today’s roads and
planning tomorrow’s routes. That’s exactly what the government is trying to do
by increasing capital expenditure from ₹2 lakh crore in 2014–15 to ₹12.2 lakh
crore today, while simultaneously pushing reforms across multiple fronts.
In line with this approach, the Union Budget 2026-27 once
again signals that whether private capital expenditure rises or not, government
capex will continue to increase. Reforms will also continue. New focus areas
whether sector-wise or region-wise will be added, keeping both growth (~7% of
GDP) and fiscal prudence (4.4% of GDP) in mind.
I know it feels like “I got nothing from this budget,”
mainly because there were no major changes in direct or indirect taxes for the
common man. But let’s pause and ask, “did we really get nothing at all?”. In my opinion, this budget is primarily future-focused, in terms of skill development for
coming generations, opening newer avenues for employment generation and
technology enablement for legacy industries.
This year, while the government capex had the traditional spending like roads, highways, waterways, railways, defence, etc but it also had a significant portion towards social
infrastructure, especially within the services sector. One of the most
important statements in the budget speech was the announcement of a
High-Powered “Education to Employment and Enterprise” Standing Committee to
focus on the Services Sector as a core driver of Viksit Bharat. The Finance
Minister also stated that India aims to capture 10% of the world’s services
output in the coming years. This marks a clear structural shift, with India aiming
to be indispensable to the world.
It almost feels as if the government wants to open up newer
engines of growth like tourism, medical tourism, education, AYUSH, AI, and data
centres.
I would like to draw your attention to the sheer number of initiatives announced to strengthen the services ecosystem.
- Upgrading and establishing new institutions for Allied Health Professionals (AHPs) across ten disciplines.
- Developing NSQF-aligned programmes to train 1.5 lakh multi-skilled caregivers.
- Supporting states to establish five hubs for Medical Value Tourism in partnership with the private sector.
- Setting up three new All India Institutes of Ayurveda, upgrading AYUSH pharmacies and drug testing labs, and strengthening the WHO Global Traditional Medicine Centre.
- Establishing AVGC Content Creator Labs in 15,000 secondary schools and 500 colleges.
- Setting up a new National Institute of Design through the Challenge route in eastern India.
- Developing five University Townships near major industrial and logistics corridors.
- Building girls’ hostels in higher education STEM institutions in every district.
- Setting up or upgrading four Telescope Infrastructure facilities.
- Creating a National Institute of Hospitality to bridge academia, industry and government.
- Launching a pilot scheme to upskill 10,000 tourist guides across 20 iconic destinations.
- Creating a National Destination Digital Knowledge Grid to digitally document places of significance.
- Developing ecologically sustainable mountain trails, turtle trails and bird-watching trails.
- Hosting India’s first Global Big Cat Summit.
- Developing 15 archaeological sites into vibrant experiential cultural destinations.
- Expanding Buddhist circuits in the North-East region.
So, if the budget was actually this comprehensive, why
didn’t it feel good?
Because while the government looks at the macro picture, we
as individuals and even securities markets collectively focus on a single
question: “What’s in it for me?”. At the end of the day, human behaviour is
instinctive and driven by immediate personal impact.
For individuals, the benefits of this budget are indirect
but real. Their children will gain from initiatives like university townships,
content creator labs, new Ayurveda institutes, and education-linked
infrastructure. Instead of repeatedly asking the government to reduce our tax
burden, maybe this budget is subtly answering a different question - how the
taxes we already pay can shape our country, businesses, and future generations.
Now coming to the market reaction, why did markets respond so
negatively? Mainly due to two announcements.
First, the increase in STT on futures from 0.02% to 0.05%,
and on options premium and option exercise from 0.10% and 0.125% to 0.15% each.
The government’s stated intent is to discourage excessive options trading and
promote long-term investing. But what often gets overlooked is that trader
behaviour isn’t driven by potential losses rather it changes only after real
losses occur. In reality, many traders may simply exit positions faster, not
because STT rose, but because capital erosion happened quicker.
The second factor impacting banking stocks was the increase
in gross borrowing to ₹17.2 lakh crore (almost 18% increase from last year).
Someone has to fund the government’s ambitious capex plans. Taxation didn't increase (Thank God!), so it comes from market borrowing. The pool of
borrowable money is the same for everyone, whether it is for the government, banks or
corporates. When government borrowing rises, available funds for others shrink,
putting pressure on interest rates and liquidity.
Overall, this budget feels like the second week of starting
a new fitness routine. You feel sore, tired and uncomfortable, without seeing
visible results yet. But it is the consistency that eventually reshapes the
body. In the same way, this budget isn’t designed to deliver instant
gratification, it is designed to shape a stronger India over time.
This is a good comprehensive analysis. Seems like the focus is on long term orientation rather than short focus or SOP's.
ReplyDeleteYes indeed and that's why it feels inadequate but it's moving in the right direction.
DeletePsu banks restructuring would happen for which committee will be constituted.
ReplyDeleteExcellent analysis.
Yes indeed. It was clarified in the press conference.
DeleteComprehensive analysis explained in simple words. Thank you
ReplyDeleteThank you
DeleteComprehensive analysis explained in simple words
ReplyDeleteThank you
DeleteIt may be correct,looks like defending the budget,does it any new direction for corporates?
ReplyDeleteWhat is defences it gives when solid country US is taking steps against indiawill FTA alone can help?Sitaraman budget will always support industry growth but this time it is missing..
Thanks for your view. My intent isn’t to defend the budget but to interpret its direction. This year’s focus is less on short term corporate incentives and more on building long-term capacity through services sector expansion, skills infrastructure, tourism, healthcare education, AVGC and logistics-linked education hubs. These don’t create instant market excitement but shape future hiring, exports and scalability.
DeleteOn geopolitics, budgets cannot directly counter US trade actions. That happens through diplomacy and trade policy. What the budget can do is reduce dependency by strengthening domestic demand and diversifying export engines, which is exactly where the spending emphasis lies. Industry support hasn’t disappeared, it has shifted from direct incentives to ecosystem building, which is slower but structurally stronger.
A good and comprehensive analysis of the budget as it aligns to the vikshit Bharat plans 👍🏼
ReplyDeleteThank you
DeleteInsightful analysis and well written.
ReplyDeleteThank you
Delete